Shock Black Friday and pre-Christmas retail results reveal unexpected fall in sales

The latest ONS results confirm retailers’ nightmare before Christmas. December’s retail sales volumes fell by 0.3% against November. However, the home delivery expert Parcelhero says there are some chinks of light in these gloomy results.

December’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) retail sales results have confirmed retailers’ fears. Retail sales volumes (the quantity of items we bought) fell by 0.3% against even November’s lacklustre figures.

The home delivery expert Parcelhero says this is particularly bad news for retailers as these seasonally adjusted figures cover the period 24 November to 28 December 2024 and therefore include Black Friday’s results.

Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., says: ‘From supermarkets to specialist butchers and bakers, food stores saw the biggest slump, with sales volumes down 1.3%. The ONS says this is the lowest index level for food stores since April 2013.

‘These figures are certainly an unwelcome surprise and bad enough to trigger the pound to fall in value from $1.22 to $1.21 following their release. However, there are some bright results amid the gloom. Clothing store sales volumes soared by 4.4% as people bought fashion items as gifts and dressed to impress for parties and family gatherings. Department store sales volumes were also up 1.2%. In all, year-on-year, sales volumes were actually up by 3.6%, against a particularly poor December 2023.

‘Crucially, the amount spent online, known as “online spending values”, rose by 1.5% during December, the first such monthly rise since September. These results include a 7.2% increase in clothing and footwear sales values and a 0.8% increase in department store sales.

‘There’s also an element of smoke and mirrors in the overall results. That’s because they have been adjusted to allow for the fact that they include Black Friday sales volumes this year but didn’t last year. If we take out this seasonal adjustment, sales volumes were actually up 10% over November.

‘One final piece of good news for all retailers is that the total spend – the sum of in-store and online sales – rose by 0.1% in December. So although sales volumes fell, spending actually rose a fraction.

‘For online sellers, the overall result was that the proportion of sales made online increased from 26.5% in November to 27% in December. That means e-commerce sellers, including online marketplace traders as well as internet retail giants, boosted their share of shoppers’ Christmas spend. Encouragingly, online sales values were also up by 1.7% when compared to December 2023.

‘Ultimately, however fickle Christmas sales prove to be, it’s those stores with a combined High Street and online offering that are most protected against unexpected events. Parcelhero’s influential report “2030: Death of the High Street” has been discussed in Parliament. It reveals that retailers must develop an omnichannel approach, embracing both online and physical store sales.